“Maybe I’ll win
Saved by zero”
The Fixx, 1983
Since the 1990’s, the U.S. Presidents and the Presidential candidates have undergone coronary calcium scores. What can we learn from their results? Let’s look at two examples. Let’s call them the Clintons. Hillary Clinton reportedly had a coronary calcium score of 0. As far as we know, she has not had any heart disease. Bill Clinton’s coronary calcium score was over 1000. He subsequently required open heart bypass surgery. Can you guess the coronary calcium scores of Presidents George Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump? What is the coronary calcium score and can you be “saved by zero”?
To understand coronary calcium, we must understand the process of atherosclerosis in the heart arteries. In susceptible individuals, plaque formation starts at an early age, the 20’s and 30’s. The initial plaque in the heart arteries is made of cholesterol, what is called “soft” plaque or “fatty” plaque. If we did a CT scan at this stage, no calcium would be detected. Over time, plaque progression continues and by the age of 50 to 60, calcium is deposited in the plaque. The plaque is now considered “hard” plaque. At this stage, a CT scan would detect calcium in the artery. Coronary calcium therefore detects the presence of plaque in the heart arteries. It does not tell us if the plaque is limited to the artery wall or if the plaque is causing significant blockage to the blood flow (obstruction can be determined with a stress test or a heart catheterization).
What is the coronary calcium score and how is it used? Coronary calcium score is obtained with a CT scan. There is no fasting, no preparation, no intravenous and no dye used. The person goes under the CT scanner, holds their breath for about one minute, the scan is taken and done. What do the results mean? For people between the ages of 40 and 75 without established heart artery disease, the score is used as follows. A score greater than 100 represents extensive plaque and an increased risk for future cardiac events (heart attack, blocked heart artery, stroke, cardiac death). In this case a statin (and perhaps aspirin 81 mg once per day) is recommended. A score between 1 and 99 is intermediate. Even a low calcium score (between 1 and 10) is associated with a two times greater risk for cardiac events compared to score of zero. In this population, a statin is recommended if high risk characteristics are present (age over 55, family history of premature heart disease, persistently elevated LDL cholesterol or triglycerides, evidence for inflammation or elevated lipoprotein a in the blood).
What does a coronary calcium score of zero represent? There are two clinical possibilities. One is that there is no heart artery plaque. The other scenario is that there is soft or fatty plaque present, which has not yet calcified. Most studies have found that among patients with coronary calcium of zero, there is a very low likelihood of blockage in the heart arteries and a low risk for heart events (heart attack, stroke, death). However, one study looked at 10,000 people and found that 45% of them had a coronary score of zero. Among those with zero scores, 1.8% still had at least one artery blocked 50% or greater. The prognostic value of a zero score was less for those under the age of 45 (they likely had not had enough time for the plaque to calcify). In general, a coronary calcium score of zero is a good prognostic sign. How long does that prognostic value last? What is the warranty period of a calcium score of zero? A study showed that about 15% of people with initial calcium score of zero progressed to a score over 10 in about 5 to 8 years. In the study it was rare to progress to a calcium score over 100. Diabetic patients, active smokers and those with strong family history progressed more quickly. Based on these data, it is recommended that statin therapy be withheld for a patient with a calcium score of zero, unless they have diabetes, are smoking or there is a family history of premature heart disease. How often should the calcium score be repeated to reassess risk? For patients with a coronary calcium score of zero, repeating the study is recommended in 3 to 5 years. For patients with an elevated coronary calcium score who are already on statin, it is not recommended to have a follow up study. The reason is that the calcium score may go up on statin treatment. If the score goes up, we don’t know if there has been further plaque progression or increasing calcium in existing plaque- a sign of healing.
Using the coronary calcium can help predict the risk for future heart events in patients between 40 and 75 years old who have not yet had a cardiac issue (primary prevention). If you are like Bill and your coronary calcium score is greater than zero, initiating lifestyle changes and starting a statin can reduce the risk for a heart event in the future. If you are lucky like Hillary and your coronary calcium score is zero, the risk for future events is low. However, it is not a “get out jail free” card nor are you “saved by zero”. If coronary calcium score is zero and LDL cholesterol is high, then lifestyle changes should be incorporated even if starting a statin may be avoided. Vigilance is necessary with follow up lipid panels and repeat coronary calcium testing in 3 to 5 years.